Can Trump’s impact be expected? Peter Kurz: There is still a wave of gains to be expected for U.S. stocks after the election

Alex Lee (middle), founder and CEO of QIC, and Peter Kurz (right), strategy chief of QIC. Lee said that "QIC CEO Week" will be the last foreign investment forum before the US presidential election, attracting great attention from international funds. Provided by QIC

 
Economic Daily reporter Jingwen Tsai / Taipei Real Time Report

The U.S. presidential election will be held on November 5. Trump's polls have shown an upward trend recently, which has increased the attention of this election. The 16th QIC CEO Week of Quantum Internationa Corp (QIC), which will be held in Hong Kong for two consecutive days starting from the 22nd, will be the last foreign investment forum before the election. QIC CSO Peter Kurz, also known as "Mr. Taiwan" pointed out that based on four major bullish considerations, including the Trump Bump effect, there is still a wave of gains to be expected for U.S. stocks after the election.

 

Alex Lee, the founder and CEO of QIC, said that "QIC CEO Week" is currently Taiwan's largest forum that helps Taiwanese companies most directly connect with international institutional investors. This year is the 16th QIC CEO Week and will be held from October 22nd to 23rd of this week. The 16th QIC CEO Week will be held at the Mandarin Oriental in Hong Kong on the Oco, a total of 22 Taiwanese companies and more than 100 international institutional investors participated, and a total of nearly 500 one-on-one meetings were arranged, together with 4 other meetings this year Investment forums also include multiple "semiconductor supply chain" forums with TSMC (2330) as the core. QIC has organized at least more than 3,000 foreign investment meetings for Taiwanese companies.

 

These 22 Taiwanese companies include: Zhisheng (2467) , Zhending-KY (4958) , Yunbao Energy (6869) , Yuxiang (unlisted), TECO (1504) , Qiaoxin (1563) , Wanliyun (unlisted ) Listed), Changke* (6548) , Zhongjie (unlisted), Free System (unlisted), World Fitness-KY (2762) , Grape King (1707) , Zhenghan-Chuang (6534) , Guanglong (8916) , Mars Biotechnology* (7731) , Wenmao (3105) , Sanyang Industrial (2206) , Yaohua Pharmaceutical (6446) , Nonglin (2913) , Cathay Financial Holdings (2882) , Wangdao Bank (2897) , Nanbao ( 4766) .

 

Driven by the bullish effect of the TSMC legal announcement, the market value of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) has officially exceeded US$1 trillion, becoming the savior of the global stock market. It has also boosted the interest of international institutional investors in Taiwan stocks, as the US presidential election is about to be held. , with only 10 trading days left from the 21st, this week's "QIC CEO Week" has become the focus of international institutional investors. The reasons why Peter Kurz is optimistic about the U.S. stock market outlook can be summarized as the following four:

 

 

1. The next few days will still be a hot season for the release of US stock earnings reports.

 

The next few days will still be the hot season for the release of US stock financial reports, and the market's estimate of this financial report data is the lowest this year. In other words, corporate financial results are likely to be better than market expectations.

 

 

2. Trump’s probability of final victory increases

 

According to multiple data polling agencies in the United States, the probability of Republican presidential candidate Trump’s final victory has increased. Lowering the corporate income tax rate is one of Trump’s policies, and based on past historical experience, the U.S. stock market fell 1 month after the Republican victory. The performance in 1.5 months has increased, and the "Trump Bump" effect can be expected.

 

 

3. Goldman Sachs estimates that the amount of treasury stocks is more than last year

 

The end of the year is the hot season for U.S. companies to start buying back treasury shares. Goldman Sachs estimates that the amount of U.S. companies buying back treasury shares this year will be 20% more than last year, which will have a positive effect on the performance of U.S. stocks.

 

 

 

4. Reduce public bond issuance

 

Due to sufficient accumulated cash position, the U.S. Treasury Department will reduce the issuance of public bonds in January next year, which will be beneficial to the stock market.

 

Peter Kurz believes that although the Democratic Party’s victory has a limited effect on boosting US stocks, the other three bullish themes can be expected, which also makes the market full of expectations for US stocks after the presidential election. “This means that no matter who wins the two parties, it will only be for US stocks. It’s just a big rise or a small rise.” This week’s “QIC CEO Week” will be the best time for international institutional investors to understand how Taiwanese companies respond to their operating strategies after the U.S. presidential election.

 

QIC has put forward many forecasts and discussions in the semiconductor and renewable energy industries this year, which are being verified by the market one by one. For example, "The market value of Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain will grow 10 times in the next 10 years," driving the semiconductor industry led by TSMC this year. The stock price of the supply chain group has soared. QIC Advisor, Jason Ho, said that this reflects the lower-than-expected operating outlook of ASML and the weak demand from non-TSMC customers. TSMC will invest more resources in advanced processes to ensure its leading edge. At the same time, it will drive the continued growth of its supply chain manufacturers.

 

Alex Lee pointed out that Taiwan is a leader in the global semiconductor industry. TSMC has supported hundreds of Taiwanese semiconductor suppliers over the years. QIC is the preferred portal for international institutions to invest in Taiwan's small and medium-sized stocks. In the past 10 years, it has assisted more than 100 Taiwanese listed companies. Unlisted companies have established connections with international investors. Looking forward to the next 10 years, QIC will continue to introduce international capital market resources to help Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain flourish internationally and expand its influence in global industries and capital markets.

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